How to estimate your retirement savings gap

Most "are you on track" rules of thumb boil down to one question: how many years of expenses do you have saved right now, relative to your age?

A rough benchmark

A commonly cited guideline suggests aiming for roughly 1x your salary saved by 30, 3x by 40, 6x by 50, and 8–10x by 65. These are benchmarks, not targets carved in stone — they assume a fairly typical savings rate and retirement age, and they ignore pensions, Social Security, and paid-off housing, all of which change the math.

Working out your own number

A more personal estimate: multiply your expected annual retirement spending by 25. That's a rough total based on withdrawing about 4% a year without running out of money over a long retirement. If you expect to spend $50,000 a year, that points to roughly $1.25 million saved — though your real number depends heavily on other income sources and how long your retirement lasts.

If the gap looks large

Three levers move the number, and they're not equally powerful. Increasing your monthly contribution helps, but working two or three extra years often closes a bigger gap — it adds saving years, delays withdrawals, and shortens the retirement you need to fund, all at once. Adjusting your expected retirement spending is the third lever, and often the most immediately controllable one.

What this estimate leaves out

It doesn't account for market downturns near retirement, healthcare cost inflation, or changes to Social Security. Treat it as a starting point for a conversation, not a final answer.